More than half of rural bank CEOs believe their local economies are in a recession
More than half of rural bank CEOs believe their local economies are in a recession
April 29, 2026
A man stands in a field. (Photo by Luke Runyon, Harvest Public Media)
More than half of rural bank CEOs across a 10-state region say their local economies are in a recession, according to the April Rural Mainstreet Index.
The index measures economic conditions in rural communities dependent on agriculture and energy. The index was created by Ernie Goss, an economist and professor at Creighton University, and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America.
Goss said 54.2% of rural bank CEOs reported their local economy is in a recession, with another 8.3% saying they believe they are entering one.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” Goss said.
The ongoing war in Iran is adding to an already difficult situation by driving up diesel fuel and fertilizer costs, two of farming’s most necessary expenses.
“Diesel fuel is really having some negative impacts on the agricultural economy, whether you’re talking about bringing inputs in or taking outputs out,” Goss said.
While many farmers have already purchased fertilizer for the planting seasons, Goss said the conflict poses a serious threat going forward.
The farm equipment sales index marked the 32nd consecutive month below growth neutral.
“The farmer has resorted to repairing equipment, resorted to buying used equipment,” Goss said. “We may see reduced yields going forward.”
The $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program has done little to ease the pressures. About 62.5% of bank CEOs said the program has had little to no impact on their local economy. Goss said the aid was not enough to replace the income and cash flow farmers have lost.
Trade disputes with China have added another layer of problems, particularly for soybean producers. China has shifted much of its soybean importing to Brazil, cutting into a market U.S. farmers rely on.
“That’s really cost the U.S. soybean producer significantly,” Goss said. “The question is, can the U.S. soybean producer get back that market?”
Goss believes the passage of a five-year Farm Bill, year-round approval of E15 ethanol and a resolution to ongoing tariff disputes are needed to turn things around.
“The farmer and the rancher have to deal with enough uncertainty,” Goss said. “We need to see that back and forth on tariffs cease.”
The Rural Mainstreet Index is a monthly survey of bank CEOs in around 200 rural communities across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota and South Dakota,. The cities have an average population of about 1,300.